Improved model and analytical calculation of the risk assessment of damage to an artificial Earth satellite by meteor stream particles
Рубрика:
| 1Kozak, PM 1Astronomical Observatory of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine |
| Space Sci. & Technol. 2025, 31 ;(5):23-38 |
| https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2025.05.023 |
| Язык публикации: Ukrainian |
Аннотация: The given article describes the improved model for analytical computation of the probability of Earth’s satellite collision with particles of meteor streams. An original statistical approach is proposed. Depending on the mass of the meteoroid, its velocity, angle of attack, and the physical characteristics of the impactor (space particle) and the target (satellite), the degree of potential damage to the spacecraft, such as depressurization or erosion of its casing, especially solar panels, is determined. To describe the formation of an explosive crater due to a collision, the Öpic theory of meteor crater formation was used, which has been repeatedly tested and has given good results. The theoretically calculated depth of the crater on the surface of the spacecraft was chosen as the criterion for the degree of damage, and damage was considered to be encounters with particles that leave craters 0.2 cm deep, which at a normal angle of attack and a speed of 30 km/s, with an iron casing of the satellite, gives a diameter of a stone meteoroid of 0.19 cm and a mass of 0.013 g. The masses of particles that lead to erosion of the casing are several orders of magnitude smaller. To plot the influx of sporadic meteors to Earth (or the flux of particles in orbit), a cumulative distribution was chosen, defined for the mass range from 0.000001 to 100 g.
This distribution was used to calculate the influx from meteor shower particles through the zenith hourly rates of the streams and the sporadic background. For certainty, the most powerful meteor showers were taken into account — eight in total: Lyrids, h-Aquariids, Southern d-Aquariids, Perseids, Orionids, Leonids, Geminids, and Quadrantids. Additionally, the model calculated the time of screening a satellite in a given orbit from stream meteoroids by a planet and its atmosphere. To calculate the effective surface area of a satellite for the direction of the meteor stream, an analytical model of the satellite composition from three-dimensional geometric primitives is proposed. Unfortunately, its use is limited when there is a significant degree of screenization of one geometric primitive by another; in this case, it is proposed to use a numerical approach. As an example, an estimate of the probability of damage to a hypothetical spacecraft with a maximum effective area of about 8 square meters over the course of a year is given. It was 0.00002 for meteor showers, which is about four times less than the impact of the sporadic meteor background.
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| Ключевые слова: Earth’s artificial satellites, meteor streams, satellite damage risk assessment, security of space vehicles, sporadic meteors, statistical model |
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https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac1766
2. Foschini L., Cevolani G.. (1997). Impact probabilities of meteoroid streams with artificial satellites: An assesment. Il Nuovo Cimento, C. 20, 211-215.
3. Hajdukova M., Kruchinenko V.G., Kazantsev A.M., Taranucha Ju.G., Rozhilo A.A., Eryomin S.S., Kozak P.N. (1995) Perseid meteor stream 1991 - 1993 from TV observations in Kiev. Earth Moon and Planets, 68 (1-3), 297-301.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00671520
4. Hongping Gu et al. (2019) Study on assessment method of satellite damaged by space debris. IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 538, 012059.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/538/1/012059
5. Jenniskens P. (1994) Meteor stream activity I. The annual streams. Astronomy and Astrophysics, 287, 990-1013.
6. Kozak P., Rozhilo O., Kruchynenko V., Kazantsev A., Taranukha A. (2007) Results of processing of Leonids-2002 meteor storm TV observations in Kyiv. Advances in Space Research, 39, 4, 619-623.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2005.08.014
7. Kozak P.M. (2024) Modeling of influence of meteor showers on the formation of space origin aerosol altitudinal density profiles in upper atmosphere. Space Science and Technology, 30 (5), 36-53.
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2024.05.036
8. Kruchynenko V.G. (1999) Integrated density of influx of space bodies onto Earth for a wide range of masses. Proc. Inter. Conf. Meteoroids 1998, Bratislava: Astron. Inst. Slovak. Acad. Sci., Eds.: Baggaley W.J., Porubcan V., 329-332.
9. Kruchynenko V.G., Kozak P.N. (2001) Explosive craters on the surface of space vehicles produced by meteoroids and space debris particles. Kosm. Nauka Tehnol., 7 (5/6), 71-74.
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2001.05.071
10. McBride N. (1997) The importance of the annual meteoroid streams to spacecraft and their detectors. Advances in Space Research, 20, 1513-1516.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(97)00428-6
11. Moorhead A.V., Egal A., Brown P.G., Moser D.E., Cooke W.J. (2019) Meteor shower forecasting in near-earth space. J. Spacecraft and Rockets, 56, 1531-1545.
https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34416
12. Moorhead A.V., Cooke W.J., Brown P.G., Campbell-Brown M.D. (2025) The threshold at which a meteor shower becomes hazardous to spacecraft. Adv. Space Res., 75 (1), 1145-1162.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.012
13. Öpik E.J. (1976) Interplanetary encounters. New York: Elsevier Scient. Publ. Comp., 155 p.
14. Rentdel J. (2006) Sporadic meteors. Proc. International meteor conference, Roden, The Netherlands, 14-17 September, 2006. Eds.: Bettonvil F., Kac J. International Meteor Organization, 99-103.
15. Ridpath I. (2012) A dictionary of astronomy (2 ed.). Online version. Oxford University Press.
16. Schmude R.W. (1998) Seasonal changes in sporadic meteor rates. Icarus, 135, 2, 496-500.
https://doi.org/10.1006/icar.1998.5965
17. Vida D., Erskine R.C.B., Brown P.G., Kambulow J., Campbell-Brown M., Mazur M.J. (2022) Computing optical meteor flux using global meteor network data. Mon. Notic. Roy. Astron. Soc., 515 (2), 2322-2339.
https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac1766