Regression modelling for αp and Kp indices: first results

1Parnowski, AS, 2Polonskaya, AYu., 1Shevchenko, VM, 1Zhuk, IT, 1Maslova, NV
1Space Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
2National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine
Kosm. nauka tehnol. 2011, 17 ;(1):36-38
Publication Language: Russian
On the basis of the regression modelling method, the model is developed which allows us to forecast apand Kpindices three hours ahead. For apindex, the linear correlation coefficient is 0.86 (0.75 for the trivial model), the prediction efficiency is 0.87, and the standard deviation is 9.15 nT. For Kpindex, 96 % of all the points have the absolute error not more than 1 unit of Kp, and 83 % of all the points have the absolute error not more than 1/3 units of Kp. Similar to the Daindex, the ap index has a memory of its previous values for approximately 1000 hours. It also has evident temporal variations with typical periods of 12 hours (diurnal), 27 days (Carrington) and 6 months (seasonal).
Keywords: correlation coefficient, prediction efficiency, regression modelling
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