Effectiveness of monitoring the catastrophic processes of space and terrestrial origin

1Chernogor, LF
1V.N. Karazin National University of Kharkiv, Kharkiv, Ukraine
Space Sci. & Technol. 2019, 25 ;(1):38-47
Publication Language: Russian
The work concerns an urgent problem - the assessment of the effectiveness of monitoring catastrophic processes of space and terrestrial origin. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative estimates for the effectiveness of the monitoring aimed at predicting catastrophic processes caused by space and terrestrial sources. The efficiency is assessed using the methods of mathematical statistics and signal detection theory. The obtained relations allow calculation indexes of the effectiveness of early warning of hazards (catastrophes) and of the costs of organizing the continuous complex multi-instrument monitoring of physical fields and their parameters characterized catastrophes of both origins.
         The index of the efficiency of the catastrophe warning has been shown to depend only on the conditional probability of the omission of a hazard. The cost index depends on five parameters: (1) the a priori probability of the catastrophe, (2) the conditional probability of a false alarm and (3) the conditional probability of the omission of a hazard, (4) the relative costs associated with a false alarm, and (5) costs saved by a successful prevention of catastrophe consequences, if prediction is correct. The gain from monitoring a few kinds of catastrophes of space and terrestrial origin has been estimated. Solar superstorms, the fall of large cosmic bodies, space gamma-ray bursts, and supernovae bursts have been chosen as cosmic catastrophes. Volcano eruptions, earthquakes, and other hazards have been chosen as terrestrial catastrophes. It has been shown that in many cases the gain could be significant. In other cases, the insignificance of the gain is due to the impossibility to attain low values of probabilities of the omission of a hazard and of a false alarm.
Keywords: celestial bodies entering, earthquake, false alarm probability, gane, index of the costs, index of the early warning, miss probability, solar superstorm, space gamma ray bursts, supernova star bursts, volcano eruption